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Pediatric ARV Forecasting Tool

Pediatric ARV Forecasting Tool

Pediatric ARV 3-Year Forecasting Tool [XLS, 4.8MB] Easy-to-use Excel-based forecasting tool focusing on all pediatric ARV regimens within a national program. By entering the data below the tool produces a demographic-based forecast of requirements ordering timelines and cost. Use this tool to support forecasting efforts when covering the entire pediatric ART program. Requires data and assumptions on:

  • Number of patients currently on 1st line, 2nd line and 3rd line ARV
  • Treatment targets
  • Annual inclusions
  • Regimen migration and attrition rates
  • Pediatric weight band distribution
  • Protocol breakdowns
  • Formulation breakdowns
  • Dosage guidelines.
  • Regimen switching timing
  • Monthly consumption of formulations
  • Stockpile and pipeline of each formulation
  • Required security stock
  • Prices of each formulation

Outputs for this tool include:

  • Demand for each formulation over next 36 months, taking into account current stock and timing
  • The total procurement cost